Predicted Utility Theory and Risk Aversion

 Expected Electricity Theory and Risk Antipatia Essay

Anticipated Utility Theory

and Risk Aversion

Workshop Paper



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Is theory Empirically true?



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How do different people with different levels of risk

aversion behave, beneath the EUT?

Key Criticism: Accordance of Large & Small Share












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Predicted Utility Theory (EUT) states that the decision maker (DM) chooses between risky or perhaps uncertain prospective customers by contrasting their predicted utility ideals, i. electronic., the measured sums acquired by adding the utility values of outcomes multiplied by their individual probabilities. In economics, game theory, and decision theory the expected utility hypothesis is a theory of electricity in which " betting preferences” of people for uncertain final results (gambles) are represented by a function of the payouts (whether in money or other goods), the probabilities of incident, risk repulsion, and the different utility of the identical payout to people with different property or preferences. This theory has demonstrated useful to describe some well-known choices that seem to contradict the predicted value requirements (which considers only the sizes of the payouts and the possibilities of occurrence), such as result from the contexts of wagering and insurance. Daniel Bernoulli initiated this kind of theory in 1738. Until the mid-twentieth century, the standard term for the expected electricity was the meaningful expectation, in contrast with " mathematical expectation” for the expected value.

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Axioms of the theory

There are four axioms of the predicted utility theory that define a rational decision maker. They can be completeness, transitivity, independence and continuity. Completeness assumes that the individual provides well defined preferences and can always decide between virtually any two alternatives.

This means that the either wants A to B, or perhaps is indifferent between A and B, or prefers B to A.

Transitivity assumes that, as an individual determines according to the completeness axiom, the


specific also chooses consistently.

This means that if A> B and B> C, then A> C will always be true. Freedom also pertains to well-defined choices and presumes that two gambles mixed with a third one particular maintain the same preference order as when the two are presented independently of the third one. The independence axiom is the most controversial one. The independence axiom means that, if A> B then there has to exist a lottery C such that, (t)A + (1-t)C > (t)B + (1-t)C will also maintain true. (Where, t is the probability of choosing the lotto. ) Continuity assumes that when there are 3 lotteries (A, B and C) and the individual favors A to B and B to C, after that there should be any combination of A and C in which the person is then indifferent between this mix plus the lottery N.

Let A, B and C end up being lotteries with A> B and B> C after that there exists a probability p in a way that B is definitely equally good as (p)A + (1-p)C

If all these axioms are satisfied, then this individual is said to be rational as well as the preferences may be represented by a utility function, i. at the. one can assign numbers (utilities) to each outcome of the lotto such that finding the right...